[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
																												
LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 11N110W IS ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 23.5N95.5W TO THE LOW. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR THE LOW AND DESPITE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER
PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. IN THE MEANTIME...FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AND TROUGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE AFRICAN COAST
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N20W TO 03N19.5W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. PLENTY OF SAL COVERS THE ENVIRONMENT IN
AND AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 23W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N46W TO 02N46W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N W OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO 49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR THE
GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER AT 09N13W TO 06N20W TO 03N31W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES NEAR 03N31W TO
04N43W THEN RESUMES FROM 03N47W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 03E AND 11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OTHER THAN THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE MENTIONED ABOVE...MAINLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES ARE
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
25N97W. DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THIS
TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N.
1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NE GULF LOCATED NEAR
29.5N84W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF ALONG 29N. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 1-3
FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE
GULF OUTSIDE OF THE TROUGH/LOW PRES AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH THE TAIL END EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI. THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. PLENTIFUL ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS BEING PUMPED UP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AROUND A STATIONARY MID-UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE
NE PACIFIC. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO
WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. A TIGHT SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT IS PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 1006 MB LOW
PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W AND ATLC RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE BASIN FROM THE NE. THIS PRES PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-3
FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8
FT WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO TIGHTENED WITH LOW PRES TO
THE NW OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE ISLAND WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH N OF THE ISLAND AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE
ISLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE W OF THE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO PUMP IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC. THESE FACTORS ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED NEAR 33N39W SUPPORTS A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N44W. SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO THE SE TO 30N20W AND ALSO TO THE SW TO
NEAR 26N59W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN E
OF 55W AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS. AN ELONGATED
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N60W TO
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 25N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N69W TO ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS TO HAITI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COVERING A LARGE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NW PORTION NEAR
30N73W SUPPORTING RIDGING ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL OFFSHORE
WATERS. MAINLY GENTLY TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS...
EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


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