[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 11N19W TO 3N18W. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK ENGULFS THE N-
NW ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 11N42W TO 3N43W...MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS IT IS
ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
7N19W TO 5N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 5N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N34W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 5N40W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N45W TO THE
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-7N E OF 22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 34W-40W AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S-
SE MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM 22N94W TO A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 19N94W TO 16N94W. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE GULF S OF 25N. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 25N BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
THUS PROVIDING WITH E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT TO GREAT PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW E-SE WIND
OF 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS DATA ALSO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1014 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF...WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N75W TO
18N76W. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS
THE NW BASIN W OF 80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO
RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THUS FAIR WEATHER.
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-76W WHERE WIND INCREASES
TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ALONG
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THIS
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
31N43W SUPPORTS A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR
36N43W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN N OF 17N WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN 52W-
66W IS SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N57W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW
CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N75W TO 18N76W. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW N
ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN 66W-77W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 67W-73W. THE TROUGH NEAR 60W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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