[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N
49.6W OR ABOUT 800 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WED...WITH
WEAKENING TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH EXPECTED SOON
AFTERWARDS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W WITH SEAS 10-15 FT. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS
DURING TONIGHT AND INTO WED. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST
ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER FAR WESTERN AFRICA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N42W TO 14N40W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EARLIER NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE HAS DECREASED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DUST IMAGERY SHOWS MORE EVIDENCE OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR   IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE HINDERING DEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N83W TO 10N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 18 KT AS
ESTIMATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED
OVER THE WATER WITH THIS WAVE WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS N OF 16N...AND 180 W OF
THE WAVE AS WELL ALSO N OF 16N. S OF 16N...OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N94W S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 9N96W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SEE LATEST TWDEP
FOR DETAILS REGARDING DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.

 TROPICAL WAVE MAY SOON BE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
5N33W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EAST OF T.D. TWO
EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 13N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO
FROM 11N50W TO THE S AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 30W-31W...AND ALSO WITHIN N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-
24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N89W WITH A
TROUGH SW TO 26N92W...AND SHEAR AXIS SW TO INLAND MEXICO AT
TAMPICO. AN ASSOCIATED 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS AT 30N89W. UPPER
DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW/TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
EXIST FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF SE OF A LINE FROM 30N83W TO 25N87W TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE
BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING
WESTWARD IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SEA.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY
FAIR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-75W E OF AN UPPER
LOW MOVING WESTWARD SSW OF JAMAICA AT 17N79W. 15-25 KT TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE THE AREA OF
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST SECTIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SSW OF JAMAICA MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
THROUGH WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO OCCUR OVER
MOST OF HISPANIOLA...BUT PRIMARILY HAITI AND THE WESTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THOUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N38W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO NE
FLORIDA IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO
PERSIST THERE WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE UPPER LOW
NEAR 27N65W AND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR IS MAINTAINING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA W OF T.D TWO WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 53W-60W.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


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