[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N29W
TO 10N32W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THEREFORE...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N66W
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W MOVING
NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SPIKE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS PROVING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR TOBAGO ALONG 13N64W
TO 14N69W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N75W
ACROSS E CUBA AND JAMAICA ALONG 16N78W TO 11N79W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
THEREFORE...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
8N33W 7N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-40W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 6N51W TO 9N56W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO
11N E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N88W TO 27N94W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZES AT 11/1500
UTC ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 30N84W TO 24N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. NCEP DUST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE AEROSOLS OVER THE NW GULF AND THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HAZE N OF 26N W OF 93W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO OVER TAMPICO. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W AND COVERS THE
NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 80W. AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN...
SEE ABOVE. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 71W. WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG 10N79W
THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E
OF 80W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND
ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS THE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN THEN
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY SAT NIGHT. STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG EACH EVENING
BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC W OF 71W. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES W AS WELL. THIS SCENARIO WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA COVERS THE SW ATLC AND IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO
BEYOND 32N77W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 58W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N48W. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS
WILL MOVE W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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