[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS NEARBY THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N46W
TO 4N43W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT. A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AND 850 MB
RELATIVELY VORTICITY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SAHARAN DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULFS THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 43W-48W
COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 320 NM SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N52W TO 5N58W AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
MOST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 53W-
58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE
E PAC WATERS. SEE THE EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
8N21W TO 6N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 6N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N39W TO 1N50W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF AND
PROVIDES SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE UPPER LEVELS
A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LIFTING OF
MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS WHICH IS FUELING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NE GULF N OF 25N. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORT A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM 29N87W TO
28N92W ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS AND ANOTHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 22N90W TO 18N92W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY PROVIDING THE GULF MAINLY WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH IS MAINTAINING EASTERLIES OF 20-
30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-83W WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH OVER THE
FAR SW N ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
CUBA AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N W
OF 80W. DRY SAHARAN AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH
ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE DUST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SAHARAN AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING HAZE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. A SECOND WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN THU MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INLAND.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SURROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS INTO
THE FAR SW N ATLC AND SUPPORTS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR IN THE
REGION...THUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 76W. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 45W-58W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 33N47W TO 26N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE BESIDES THE WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED
ABOVE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY AIR DOMINATE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER BASIN TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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