[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N36W TO 3N36W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT.
METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ENGULFING THE
NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-10N
BETWEEN 35W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N46W
TO 3N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHILE DRY AIR
FROM THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENTRAINS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. ITS
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N89W TO 14N91W AND MOVES NEAR 20-25 KT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE E PAC WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
6N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N26W TO 4N35W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 2N39W TO
3N50W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N E OF 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA SW TO EASTERN
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ADJACENT E PAC WATERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS
THE GULF TO PROVIDE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT. DEEP LAYER
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...HOWEVER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND
SHEAR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N-27N W
OF 88W AS WELL AS S OF 20N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 78W-84W AS WELL
AS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE AZORES HIGH IS EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLIES OF 20-30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN
66W-78W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING CLOSE TO THE COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA COASTS. WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN. OTHERWISE...A COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARA KEEP THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONVECTIVE FREE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
ENTERING THE EASTERN BASIN WED MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU MORNING AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

OVER THE SW N ATLC...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N72W SW TO ANDROS NEAR 25N77W. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 71W-79W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N46W TO 24N51W WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE
AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 14N
WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 10-15 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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