[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040637
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 35.1N 76.2W AT 04/0500 UTC OR
ABOUT 35 NM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 16
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. THE CENTER
OF ARTHUR MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...OVER
THE SHACKLEFORD BANKS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND BEAUFORT NORTH
CAROLINA. CONVECTION IS STRONGEST OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE
EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EXTENDS FROM 19N18W TO
10N21W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
AFRICAN COAST AND EXTENDS INLAND ABOUT 120 NM.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 21N49W TO 10N47W IS MOVING W AT
15-20 KT AND IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WITH THE WAVE DUE TO BEING EMBEDDED
WITHIN A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N65W TO 13N72W AND IS MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH A BROAD ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE
WAVE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 11N91W AND IS MOVING W-NW
AT 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 16N TO
19N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W AND OVER WESTERN HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO 11N95W AND IS MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N26W TO 07N40W TO 04N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-06N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER THE
NW GULF NEAR 27.5N95W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. BROAD RIDGING
ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. OVER THE NE
GULF SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SE LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE RIDGING ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION CONTINUES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. FURTHER TO THE EAST A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 12N76W. RESULTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 72W. A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO
HISPANIOLA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED UP TO 15 DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N29W AND IS MOVING S 10-
15 KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE DEEP
TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 31N55W TO
23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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