[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 79.0W AT 1200
UTC...OR ABOUT 100 MILES ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND
MOVING N AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
ARTHUR WILL BE STEERED NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF THE CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS LOCATED OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32W FROM 10N TO 23N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
NO ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN
DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W FROM 09N TO 20N...OR ABOUT
300 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION BUT DOES EXHIBIT A
TYPICAL WAVE STRUCTURE AND IS EASILY IDENTIFIED IN THE LATEST
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
74W/75W FROM 10N TO 20N AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. MINIMAL
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 84W FROM 09N TO 20N AND IS MOVING W AT 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N35W AND CONTINUES TO 06N45W
TO 03N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N E OF 19W INTO AFRICA.


...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N96W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH.
CYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 27N90.5W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND BECOME MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 40 KT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

EARLIER HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND HAVE DISSIPATED.
LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY COVER
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N55W TO 17N63W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A WEAKENING
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W
AND IS MOVING N ABOUT 20 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE
CIRCULATION TO 25N38W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
COVER MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WITHIN TWO DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 1018
MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 30N55W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N52W TO THE LOW CENTER AND THEN CONTINUING AS A COLD
FRONT TO 24N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO THREE DEGREES E OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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