[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N 79.2W AS
OF 01/0600 UTC...OR ABOUT 105 MILES SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MOVING SW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED S
OF THE CENTER FROM 25N TO 27.5N W OF 77W TO THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED NW TO N UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21W/22W FROM 08N TO 19N...MOVING W 10 TO 15
KT. SAHARAN AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULFS THE WAVE LIMITING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N67W TO 08N69W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED E OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N75W TO 10N77W..MOVING W 15 KT WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 15N17W
THROUGH 10N25W TO 05N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N42W AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A 60 NM WIDE
BAND CENTERED FROM 09N13W TO 07N20W TO 06N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST OFF
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N95.5W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS S TO 21N97W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N
OF 21N W OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S OF 23N WITH OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS
LOCATED S OF 23N W OF 89W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A 1017 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED OFF THE
SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N90W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS
INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 45 KT. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROKEN CLOUDINESS OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 70W. MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THE SOUTHERN PART OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED N OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 68W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N67W. A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVERS
THE AREA FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 48W N OF 25N. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 28N40W AND IS MOVING N
ABOUT 10 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO
20N43W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH
32N53W TO 30N60W TO 33N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
33N52W TO 27N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N39W TO 22N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB

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