[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE
TODAY...FRI...AND SAT MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N19W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-6N E OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO BEYOND THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W GULF NEAR
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR MERIDA.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS COVERING THE GULF W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM CEDAR
KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N91W 24N92W TO MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1032 MB HIGH JUST E OF WASHINGTON DC. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE THE REMNANTS BEGIN TO SHIFT NW FRI AND
SAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRI AND
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL PANAMA TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE DRIEST AIR OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AT 30/1500 UTC IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 22N85W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN
THE E AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING MINIMAL
GALES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 18N79W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COULD
MOVE ACROSS W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH SUN
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER THE TRADE
WINDS COULD USHER IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING ON SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING
NEAR 32N68W TO 28N74W WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN RETURNS TO STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180/225 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N49W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-
22N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 34N37W.
THE FRONT WILL RETROGRADE NW TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 31N69W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 30N
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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