[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET
ARE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF
AREA FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 81W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...TO 4N19W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W TO 3S30W 3S37W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN
2W AND 30W. SCATTERED STRONG IS ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W COVERING PARTS OF BRAZIL...
FRENCH GUIANA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ALONG THE TEXAS
AND MEXICO COASTS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW STILL IS INLAND ACROSS THE U.S.A. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE PART THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 92W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 27N70W 24N80W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 30N86W 27N91W 23N93W 20N96W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 29N74W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CURVING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KVAF...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KIPN...
AND KMYT.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK UP NEAR PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM
APALACHICOLA TO TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA TO PUNTA GORDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
CONTINUE FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN MARATHON KEY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25.5N80W TO 22N90W TO 18.5N92W.
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO THE WEST OF 94W...AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 14 FEET TO THE WEST OF 83W AND WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT TO THE LINE FROM 29N92W TO 24N98W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 19N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THEY
COVER MOST OF THE AREAS...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN
72W AND 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES COASTAL PANAMA NEAR 9N83W ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CUTS
DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W
MOVING WESTWARD.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...LA ROMANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO
PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE RIDGE
IS FROM 30N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...TO PANAMA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A RIDGE...WITH NORTHEASTERLY-
TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N45W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N59W TO 13N73W. CLOUDS AND
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W
AND 52W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
A RIDGE...AND MOISTURE...COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 8N59W 11N48W 21N41W
27N36W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND AFRICA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N38W...THROUGH 32N46W TO 30N53W AND 27N63W
27N71W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N68W 27N78W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 15N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 43W...
AND FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N43W TO 27N65W TO 20N67W TO
17.5N62W TO 09.5N61W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A
COLD FRONT FROM 31N70W TO 25.5N80W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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