[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW THROUGH 27N90W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND IT WILL USHER
IN NW TO N MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE W CENTRAL GULF
PORTION BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND TO THE SW PORTION ON WED. THE
DURATION OF THESE IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PRES
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX BY LATE WED ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N11 TO 03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 03N17W TO BELOW THE EQUATOR AT 22W. IT RESUMES AT THE
EQUATOR AT 34W AND CONTINUES TO 01N44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG AND S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...TO THE S OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM FAR SW
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER NW MEXICO ENE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO...
...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 24N. MOSIAC
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 89W. THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET-UP IS FAVORING THE TRANSPORT OF DENSE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ENE TO THE N OF THE FRONT IN THE JET STREAM
FLOW. THIS SET-UP IS BRINGING AREAS OF COLD RAIN TO JUST ABOUT
THE ENTIRE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED OVER MUCH OF AFOREMENTIONED GULF
AREAS AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SE AND WEAKENS.
THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. A FEW CLUMPS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE ARE BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOP SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE E AND SE PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NW ARE
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE
SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT
THERE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE REST OF
THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT
...RESULTING IN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. PATCHES OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALONG THE S CENTRAL
AND SW COASTS OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS SW AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N65W TO NEAR
23N64W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE IN THE DRY AIR. THE TROUGH IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 61W-71W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
BASIN. A 1015 MB LOW MOVING NE 25 KT IS NEAR 31N78W WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO INLAND NE FLORIDA. SMALL
PATCHES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
THESE CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. ON WED...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH IT WITH THE MERGED FRONT THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE WED. IT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NW AS WEAK LOW PRES MAKES MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO THU. ELSEWHERE...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING W
IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 17N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NW TO N OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE OPENING UP TO
A TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


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