[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS SW
TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING
GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF BY 28/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN
16W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF THIS EVENING...BUT REMAINS A MINIMAL IMPACT DUE TO
GENERALLY WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. OVERALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION HOWEVER
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
NEW ORLEANS SW TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
27N81W W-SW TO 26N87W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NW GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS IT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ARE BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W
AND TO THE ADJACENT WATERS SURROUNDING JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND CUBA. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION IS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS IN THE SW NORTH ATLC S-SW TO SOUTH
OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W. OTHERWISE TRADES PERSIST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-79W...AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 66W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE SE
WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NE CONUS
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 34N71W THAT
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ANALYZED FROM 30N77W SW
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 28N80W AND THE OTHER FARTHER
EAST FROM 30N70W TO 26N75W. WHILE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WESTERNMOST
BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 330 NM EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST BOUNDARY. FURTHER
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IS AMPLE MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR
37N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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