[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FROM 21N-24N WEST OF 96W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
25/1800 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N17W TO 3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N23W TO 2N27W AND 3N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO 26N93W TO 20N94W TO 18N95W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF FRONT OVER THE W GULF AND N OF 27N OVER THE NE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS NOW NOTED. THE FRONT
SHOULD THUS NOT PUSH MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT A WEAK
LOW TO FORM ON THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEAR LINE HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS....NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH TRADE WIND
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...

AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N70W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 30N60W TO E CUBA AT 20N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1037 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N21W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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