[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W 26N95W 19.5N96.5W. GALE-FORCE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO
15 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 26N TO 28N TO
THE WEST OF 94W. OTHER GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING 8 TO 16 FEET ARE TO
THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21N TO 26N. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF 95W. SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE
WEST OF 86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N17W TO 3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N23W TO 2N27W AND 3N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N75W IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 21N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N95W AND 21N98W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST...TO 25N102W IN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS
INTERIOR MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO
27N97W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST OF 90W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD JAMAICA.

A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N76W TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N86W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N76W AND 10N78W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.89 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF THE SHEAR
AXIS AND ITS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

OTHER 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.14 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. RUNS
FROM 4N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 1N80W ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT CONTINUOUS AFTER 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 18N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA
AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA AND PUERTO PLATA.
FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OR
SO. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO...RELATED TO THE FLOW AROUND A TROUGH. THE TROUGH
WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWESTWARD...AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.
. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR
SO...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH THE RETURN OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
OVER THIS AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO
29N60W 24N70W... ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. A SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 20N76W TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N86W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 16N76W AND 10N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.89 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N52W TO 27N60W 24N70W 20N74W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N31W 22N34W 16N42W 12N50W 8N58W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TROUGH...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 22W...ACROSS AFRICA.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N50W 25N56W AND
20N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE EAST OF THE 32N53W 24N70W STATIONARY FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N22W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...N OF 20N E OF 66W TO LINE FROM 31N45W TO
20N58W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN E OF 54W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 59W S OF LINE FROM 28N35W TO 21N59W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA
OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73.5W TO 28N81W. N
OF 29N W OF 78W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF A 24-HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 2.5N80W. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 82W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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