[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE WEST OF THE FRONT AT 24/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 09W-
20W...AND FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 20W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 29W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING
FROM 29N84W SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION NEAR
13N100W. THE TROUGHING REMAINS ALOFT AND IS LARGELY TRUMPED BY
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS STRETCHING FROM NW MEXICO
EASTWARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF
FOCUSED ON A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 30N90W AND ACROSS SE ALABAMA NEAR
31N86W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS TODAY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD USHERING STRONG
NORTHEASTERLIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN AND
INFLUENCE THE BASIN FOR THE DURATION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTERLY E OF 70W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM EASTERN
CUBA W-SW TO THE NORTHERN BELIZE COAST NEAR 18N87W. AS THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT...THE SURFACE TROUGH NOTES A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS COMPOSITION AS COOLER...DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS IN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY INFERS A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA W-SW TO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE
VICINITY OF HONDURAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO PREVAIL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
GENERALLY W OF 70W AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO THE NW
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS W-SW TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
18N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N60W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA VIA EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N35W
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN E OF 55W AND PROVIDE RELATIVELY
FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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