[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N09W TO
3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES AT THAT POINT TO 0N36W.  CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ FROM 19W
TO 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N86W WITH THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN OF MEXICO.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FEATURE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXISTS IN A
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND WHICH IS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS.  WHILE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SURFACE FEATURE CONNECTED TO
THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MAY BE SUPPORTING
IT.  THE SURFACE WINDS IN THE GULF ARE QUITE WEAK...20 KT OR
LESS...THROUGHOUT AS THE FORCING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT IS NOT
STRONG.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A NEW FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP SIGNIFICANTLY...THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL.

...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ACTIVE THIS EVENING...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N67W SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN CUBA
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N69W SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
CUBA.  IT DOES APPEAR IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THAT THE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY...ONCE AGAIN...BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER
FEATURE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM
WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.  THE 0202Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS DROPPING TO 20 KT OR WEAKER.  THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE TWO FRONTS TO MERGE AND BE STATIONARY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 32N61W SOUTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.  MOIST
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE MERGED FRONTS SHOULD
CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME OF
THESE RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED AT 32N37W DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N65W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AFRICAN
COAST AT 22N17W.  NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UNDER
PRIMARILY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.  A VIGOROUS UPPER- TO MID-LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AT 21N45W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
7N50W.  THE LOW/TROUGH IS PROMOTING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...DESPITE PROMINENT TURNING OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE FEATURE IS NOT AT THE SURFACE AS SEEN FROM
NUMEROUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES TODAY AS WELL AS SHIP BATFR19
WHICH ALL HAVE SHOWN UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA TO THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA.  NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER EASTERN
CUBA...JAMAICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE.  THE
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE
FLOW INDUCED BY THE 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IMPACTING THE
COAST.  THE TYPICAL ACCELERATED EASTERLY TRADES NORTH OF
COLOMBIA ARE ALSO IN PLACE...REACHING 25-30 KT.  THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
16N77W.  CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM
WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS EAST-FACING SLOPES OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS ALONG 9N FROM
COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA TO THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA.  NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO MERGE WITH COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N77W.  CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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