[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 5N13W.
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 5N13W TO 1N30W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 11W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N ALONG
27W. A 100-140 KT JET STREAM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
25N95W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 32N75W. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
24N97W. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF...WITH HIGH CLOUDS S OF THE JET STREAM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT AND PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF. NLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
20-25 KT THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALY DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES
E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE PANAMA/COSTA
RICA BORDER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
RAIN...THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...W OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG NLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE NW OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE SAT. ELY
TRADES 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER IN THE PROXIMITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N65W TO 27N70W THEN STATIONARY TO
EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 32N60W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 27N51W TO
6N56W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N53W TO 24N56W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE TROUGH N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-57W. IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 26N39W TO
10N28W. SLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS

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