[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER THEY DEVELOP.

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET...ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...FROM 25N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA
AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 6N15W AND 5N17W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 4N20W 4N27W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N8W 6N11W 6N22W
8N30W 12N36W 11N40W 8N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A....SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE WESTERNMOST PART OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
WITHIN 210 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM 24N TO 30N.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W AND 97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 27N78W TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA...TO 24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N50W...THROUGH 32N58W 27N67W
24N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N84W OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM 25N TO 27N...ROUGHLY FROM NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA.
CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
19N77W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 76W...AND FROM
15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 4N79W...BEYOND
5N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 4N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 12N84W IN NICARAGUA TO 10N80W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN BROAD SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND POSSIBLY NOT RELATED AT
ALL TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 72W AND 80W N OF
11N TO LINE FROM 18N72W TO 13N80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W
AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA...AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N77W...IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE REPORTING
STATIONS THAT ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS. FEW LOW CLOUDS
COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD COVERING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR
SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND THEN THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WESTWARD MORE AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN
THE BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 18N46W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 18N46W CYCLONIC CENTER IS
ENDING UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN A COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE 18N46W CYCLONIC
CENTER...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 32N42W 20N48W CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W FROM 5N TO 11N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W.

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE LATEST IMPULSE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 25N45W TO
20N48W. THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 27N30W AND 26N35W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 26N53W TO 23N40W AND 22N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED WITHIN
180 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N19W 29N27W 24N40W 22N45W 23N48W...AND TO THE NORTH OF
26N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N18W 26N30W 21N44W 23N50W 24N53W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N10W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 23N29W AND 20N37W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N50W...THROUGH 32N58W 27N67W
24N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N84W OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N35W TO 23N44W TO
22N50W. WITHIN 75 NM N OF FRONT E OF 43W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E OF 50W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. FROM 24N TO
29N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N AND
NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS BETWEEN 50W AND 73W FROM
10N TO A LINE FROM 25N73W TO 20N50W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. S OF 11N E OF 50W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. N OF 29N W OF
73W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net