[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET...WITHIN 240 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WITH RESPECT TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
25N40W...ARE FORECAST AT 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 2N20W 3N33W AND 2N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N8W 6N11W 6N22W
8N30W 12N36W 11N40W 8N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S.A....SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...INTO WEST TEXAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND...FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO 28N100W IN TEXAS...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN LAREDO AND
EAGLE PASS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N61W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO
28N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PART OF THE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF
87W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COMPARATIVELY
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KVAF...KGUL...KHQI...KEHC...KCRH...KVBS...KEIR...KSPR...
KMDJ...KATP...KMYT...AND AT KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVBS...KEHC...KVBS...KEIR...
KSPR...KATP...K9F2. ICAO STATION KAXO HAS BEEN REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG FOR THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THUNDER...COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM TALLAHASSEE PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO PERRY...AND AT THE ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TO PUNTA GORDA...AND TO NAPLES. CLEAR
SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
16N74W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
HAITI.

A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 22N84W 18N85W 16N84W AT 10/1200
UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED AND BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE
SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 83W.
MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING UNDER UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW IS REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 67W. THIS
WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 17N48W ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST
OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 4N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 79W IN BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND POSSIBLY NOT RELATED AT ALL TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14
FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N
TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND
69W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
16N74W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
HAITI.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTO DOMINIGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD COVERING
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR
SO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HAITI. THE INVERTED
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
FOR THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 17N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
6N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N51W 10N54W 6N55W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPOORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N34W TO
25N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 24N40W
23N60W BEYOND 32N74W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N61W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO
28N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE 06-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF
SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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