[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO
4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W TO 3N22W AND 3N29W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 3W AND
10W...AND FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM
27N82W ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...TO 24N87W AND 22N90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N91W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W...INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT ICAO STATION KBQX
SINCE SUNRISE...NOT COUNTING THE LAST OBSERVATION...WITH
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KATP...KMYT...AND KMDJ. CLEAR
SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/LOW VISIBILITIES WITH FOG COVER THE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN APPARENT
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF COASTAL
LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/LOW VISIBILITIES WITH FOG COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE BETWEEN TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY...AND IN BROOKSVILLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/LOW VISIBILITIES WITH FOG COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IN MARATHON AND IN KEY WEST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...WITH
RAIN IN NAPLES DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES/
FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THAT WIND
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AND BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER PART OF THAT EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WIND
FLOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...AND IT CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN
74W AND 81W...MOVING TOWARD COLOMBIA.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM SWAN ISLAND NEAR 17N84W TO 22N85W
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W...
INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N/17N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO
THE WEST OF 84W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST
OF 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.71 IN
TRINIDAD...0.11 IN CURACAO...AND 0.10 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N85W...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM
12N TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE RIGHT ON TOP OF IT.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE EAST-TO-WEST...FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IE
NEAR 25N62W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF 30W. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 30N63W
27N70W AND 26N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N73W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 28N61W 25N72W...TO 23N78W AT THE COAST OF
CUBA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.51 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.06 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N46W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 34W AND 65W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO 26N73W THEN A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N80W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. A SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET FROM 12N TO 23N TO THE EAST
OF 60W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N43W
20N65W 09N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net