[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 4N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO NEAR 40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 2N TO 4.5N
BETWEEN 7W AND 12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG EASTERN MEXICO DOMINATES
MOST OF THE GULF REGION PRODUCING A W TO NW WIND FLOW ALOFT AND
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA CROSSING JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF AND AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. THESE WINDS ARE
ADVECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS OVER
THE NE PART OF THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF REGION EARLY MONDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER WESTERN CUBA. MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON
SAT WHILE WEAKENING. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES
INDICATED S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 80W AND MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
SATURDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SAT
AND COULD BRING SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND FLORIDA SUPPORTS  A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 25N75W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES TO WESTERN CUBA. A 210 NM WIDE BAND OF
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT PER SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THE 21Z SURFACE
MAP. GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS A LOW PRES DEVELOPING JUST N OF THE
NW BAHAMAS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENE. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW THE
FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REACHING EASTERN CUBA BY
SAT AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT NIGHT. EXPECT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N29W. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N E OF 40W WHERE
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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