[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N9W TO
2N17W  TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA 23N94W THEN
STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE
FRONT. A 95-115 KT JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
25N97W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. NLY SURFACE WINDS 20-25 KT N OF THE
FRONT WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN
FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI. TRADE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FRI
NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS ARE ALONG WESTERN HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH FRI DUE TO DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AREA ALONG
AND N OF THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N31W. A 75-95 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION FROM 17N42W TO THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N17W. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 2N2W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS

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