[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
3N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 3N19W TO
0N30W TO 1S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM
0N-5N E OF 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 50W AND WITH BASE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT AND THEN INTO THE GULF
ALONG 27N82W TO 26N90W SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO. WESTERLY TO NEAR
WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC N OF 24N. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
94W. IN THE SW GULF...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N96W WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF
PROVIDING N-NELY WIND FLOW OF 20-30 KT N OF THE FRONT. WINDS OF
10-15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THU THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE IN THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
BASIN WHILE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATE ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WHICH
TRADUCES IN OVERALL STABILITY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE
SURFACE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
THU. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING THROUGH
THE NE CARIBBEAN WHERE MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THU
MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING THE SAME
DAY.

HISPANIOLA...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS CONVERGING ALONG THE ISLAND TERRAIN ARE
SUPPORTING THE GENERATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS DRY AIR ALOFT PREVAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE N WESTERN ATLC NEAR 50W AND WITH BASE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS
THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N77W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 28N80W. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 73W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS
IN PART A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS FROM 30N53W TO
29N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 51W-60W.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN N
OF 17N ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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