[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W. THE GALE WILL CONTINUE TO THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 2N41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM ITCZ TO 4N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY AND CONTINUES TO 27N86W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N92W 21N95W THEN SE TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
SE OF THE COLD FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT AND
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N. COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM TAMPA BAY
TO THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF ON SUN NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE ALONG 28N ON MON. A THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO N GULF TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN LIMITING THESE SHOWERS. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. THE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN
WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E THROUGH
EARLY SUN WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THE DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT KEEP ANY LOW LEVEL SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP FROM BECOME STRONG.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 22/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W THEN
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND BERMUDA AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT TO 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 24N55W TO OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 75W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N56W. COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DRIFT NW OF THE
AREA ON SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC SUN NIGHT
STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE MON THEN LIFT NE ON
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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