[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N73W TO 26N80W.
GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11 TO
20 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 15
FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 79W. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
4N17W 2N22W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF
5N2W 6N10W 6N20W 3N30W 6N37W 6N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 55W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 110W ACROSS MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 31N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N68W TO 28N70W...TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N78W TO 19N80W AND 16N85W JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N63W 27N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N68W 24N72W 21N76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.10 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LINE FROM CUBA
ALONG 80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N72W-NORTHERN BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA-
25N90W COLD FRONT. A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD LINE HAS BEEN MARKING
THIS FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR
SO...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KEMK...KHQI...AND KCRH.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS OR LESS IN ALICE TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM VICTORIA NORTHWARD.
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI IS REPORTING A VARIABLE VISIBILITY OF 1
TO 2 MILES WITH FOG.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AWAY
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA...EVENTUALLY TO VENEZUELA...AND THEN BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 66W. THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS ASSOCIATION WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N48W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF
70W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 80W IN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 4N80W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 80W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
FEW LOW CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 18
HOURS OR SO. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 66W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THIS SAME
AREA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N11W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE WESTERN SAHARA... TO
17N18W OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA INTO SENEGAL. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 30W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT THE METEO FRANCE FORECASTS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N67W 28N70W 21N77W IN CUBA FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N33W TO 31N44W 28N52W 25N59W 22N67W...TO CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 11 TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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