[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N79W TO 29.5N82W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO 28N AND EAST TO 75W. EXPECT ALSO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 72W. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CURRENT CONDITIONS HAVE THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N16W AND 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W TO
1N30W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 2N
TO 3N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N12W 5N30W 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 110W ACROSS MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N59W TO 31N66W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N66W TO 28N70W AND 25N72W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 25N72W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W.
THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 22N79W TO 20N82W AND TO
16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 29N66W TO 23N77W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.00 IN
BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N FROM JAMAICA
WESTWARD...IN HONDURAS...AND IN HAITI AND ITS WESTERN COASTAL
WATERS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE TEXAS GULF WATERS...THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LINE 28N96W 24N90W 24N82W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH AND FRONT.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...CURVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT KATP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SOME AREAS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AREA...IN FORT MYERS...NAPLES AND KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N88W TO 27N99W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS 60W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 66W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 12N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN
TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF
70W...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N83W IN
COSTA RICA...BEYOND 7N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 72W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW CROSS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD...IN
HONDURAS...AND IN HAITI AND ITS WESTERN COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STATIONARY
FRONT.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS IN SANTO
DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
MOST OF THE TIME...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL REACH THE AREA
DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A
SEPARATE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...TO JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N20W AND 23N26W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N26W TO 22N38W. A
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 29N47W 27N54W 24N64W...
TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF
26N TO THE EAST OF 18W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 12N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 66W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 10N TO
23N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 50W.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 60W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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