[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S.
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE BY 15/1200 UTC ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH WEST
WINDS PREVAILING WEST OF THE FRONT AND SW WINDS EAST OF THE
FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N19W TO 01N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 06W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 24W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN REGION AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 36N91W. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF BASIN...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N88W...CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDING GENERALLY S-SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5
TO 15 KT...AND A HIGHER RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS N OF 26N W OF 87W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
OVERNIGHT AND CLIP THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 09N62W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE BROAD
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N79W SW TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TOBAGO. TRADES OCCURRING EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
WITHIN MOIST E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO
THE NW ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
EASTERN HONDURAS COAST. GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND LIE WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WATERS PROVIDING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THIS
EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE AREA NEAR
32N62W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-28W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES
BETWEEN THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AND MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH A BASE
DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N16W SW TO 26N30W THEN W-SW TO 25N40W. FROM THIS POINT W-
NW THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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