[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131212
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOY 41012 OFF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IN ADDITION...AN OSCAT
FROM 04 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO GALE FORCE NEAR
31N77W...CONFIRMING THAT SW WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL GALE
FORCE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. THE
GALES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE GULF STREAM...STARTING NEAR 80W OR ABOUT 75 NM OFF THE COAST
OF NE FLORIDA. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS N
OF 28N FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF 65W THROUGH THU NIGHT.

PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST GUINEA-
BASSAU NEAR 13N16W THEN TO 09N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...CONNECTED TO A
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF
TAMPA FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SEAS RUNNING UP TO 10 FT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE GULF FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER INTO THE
NW GULF LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE EASTWARD REACHING FROM SW
FLORIDA TO 27N93W BY LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH THE ROUTINE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE AN EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT. THIS IS DOWN FROM
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF COLOMBIA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. THE WEAKER TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DIMINISHING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
A FEW CONVERGENT SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE STREAMING WESTWARD OFF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PANAMA DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATE FRI FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER
LEVELS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO OVER CUBA FRI
ADVECTING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM LATE TODAY
INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE FROM 31N73W TO
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN COLD
FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND INTO THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST
NORTH ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE PROCEED THE FRONT
N OF 28N AS FAR WEST AS 65W. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY
LATE FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO 27N60W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N24W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF 22N TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N48W TO 09N50W IS
ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 12N TO
18N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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