[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 26N W OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WARNING
WILL END THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT AS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FRONT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 7N12W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W 1N46W THEN S OF
THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.
A DEEPENING 1005 MB LOW AT 12/2100 UTC IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG
25N87W 22N89W 20N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W AND
CONTINUING W AND NE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 MB LOW TO OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N85W TO MERIDA MEXICO AND A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DENSE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST N OF 23N. THE LOW AND FRONT
WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE GULF BY THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF FRI NIGHT AND E OF THE
AREA SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO
OVER W CUBA...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 76W-81W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA E OF 80W. WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO OVER CUBA FRI ADVECTING MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
FRI THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N79W EXTENDING A COLD FRONT
TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N W OF 77W AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB
LOW ALONG 31N74W WHERE IT CONNECTS TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
CONNECTS TO A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N70W. THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 72W TO BEYOND
32N. FLAT NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W ATLC BEFORE LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT
LATE THIS EVENING. THE 1005 MB LOW IN THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE U.S. MID ATLC STATES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W
ATLC LATE TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N78W
TO S FLORIDA BY THU MORNING AND RAPIDLY SHIFT E ACROSS TO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CLIP THE FAR W ATLC SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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