[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO S
OF 26N WEST OF A 95W. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DUE TO COLD...DRY AIR
FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES
CENTER NEAR 29N89W TO 26N93W TO 20N97W.

THE LOW PRES AREA OFF LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS BY THU...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT SWEEPING THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SHIFTING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC WATERS THU. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
31N78W TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU MORNING AND WILL RAPIDLY
SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL BECOME DIFFUSE BY SAT. MINIMAL GALE
FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W
OF 77W LATE TONIGHT... SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT.

SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N17W TO 01N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
60 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                             A
VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN COMING INTO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...ENERGIZING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS DEEPENING OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF. BUOY AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOWS THE LOW PRES IS DOWN TO 1009 MB NEAR
THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS OFF LOUISIANA. WINDS ARE STARTING TO
INCREASE JUST WEST OF THE LOW PRES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF.
UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO
26N90W. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF
VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SE FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH SEAS LIMITED TO 1 TO 3 FT.

THROUGH THU...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH STATES LATE TODAY...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
OFF LOUISIANA TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING AND REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY
THU. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF BY EARLY THU AS
WELL...DRIVING CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NW FLOW WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF AS WELL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING
THE NORMAL FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OFF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS ALONG WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. DEEP RICH MOISTURE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRY MID TO
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
AS IS NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW TOPPED BUT
FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UNITED STATES AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THU THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY
LATE FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION BY EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGING ALONG 29N WEST OF 60W IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM WEST TO
EAST AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 60W. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR 29N70W...LONG THE REMNANT OF A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WILL
WAVER NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS.

FARTHER EAST...A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED NEAR
30N27W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH
TRADES PREVAILING SOUTH OF 22N...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS NORTH OF 22N CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 21N40W TO 14N45W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W TO
45W. MUCH DRIER AIR PREVAILS WEST OF 40W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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