[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE FOR WINDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO S OF
26N WEST OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N85W TO A LOW PRES
CENTER NEAR 26N96W TO 21N98W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 12.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC STARTING AT
0600 UTC FEBRUARY 13 AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC
THAT DAY.

SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N20W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-06N
EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-02N
BETWEEN 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC CANADA SW TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO A BASE OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ALONG PANAMA CITY TO 27N90W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
26N95W TO 22N95W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER NE ILLINOIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND PROVIDES NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW N AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE S OF 26N W OF FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 92W-95W COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SAME IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 85W-90W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE AREAS N OF THE
FRONT WHERE NO CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...DENSE FOG
HAS BEEN REPORTED. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 12.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES
THE REGION WHILE A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. HOWEVER...AT THE
LOWER LEVELS THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL
AS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHICH ARE ENHANCING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BY THURSDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL CUBA SW TO BELIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION BY EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N73W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 140 NM EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...NOTICEABLE IN ASCAT
DATA...IS NORTHEAST OF THE LOW NEAR 30N69W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N29W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE WED
NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net