[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL AHEAD OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS IS PROVIDING MODEST
SUPPORT TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THIS HAD STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO DRIFT
SOUTH AGAIN. WEAK OVERRUNNING IS MAINTAINING SOLID DECKS OF
STRATO-CUMULUS N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF. WITH THIS
PATTERN...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW GULF LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BUOY AND PLATFORM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OFF THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA WHERE THE FRONT MAY BE STARTING TO
TEMPORARILY STALL. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF AT THIS TIME UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 1018 MB HIGH
PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE GULF IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF TODAY AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
PENSACOLA. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
GALE OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY EARLY
TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE
PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED BUT
FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF STRONGER TRADE
WINDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO
65W...AND AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU AND KEEP ANY SHOWERS
TO LOWER LEVELS. THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING THE
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCE IN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS NEAR 30N63W ALONG THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA
WILL BECOME ENERGIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA WED NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N75W
TO W CUBA THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
THE SW TO W FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS ALONG THE DYING
FRONT NEAR 30N64W. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N
WEST OF 65W...MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 30N. MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
NOTES SOUTH OF 22N. WEST OF 65W THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N28W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 27N65W. DRIER SAHARAN AIR DOMINATES
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF 40W. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG 20W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW NORTH OF 22N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N. ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
SHOW SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES. A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N47W TO 12N52W AND IS MAINTAINING AREAS OF
SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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