[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 01W-07W...
AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 25W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY PATTERN IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING AS ONLY A VERY SUBTLE
WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AS A
RESULT...RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE GULF WATERS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING ANALYZED TO
THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WESTWARD ALONG 31N TO CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD AND
EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO
30 KT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
CUBA...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
E OF 69W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO MOISTURE
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. IN ADDITION...OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-81W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N60W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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