[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 1S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W...FROM 1N TO
3N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 13W
AND 15W...FROM 2N TO 1S BETWEEN 27W AND 35W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM
5N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE TROUGH NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN GENERAL. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH
FLORIDA...CONTINUING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT IS COLD THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N75W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY
FROM 28N75W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 26N78W IN THE BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 60W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
EAST OF 86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... IS 0.11 IN
BERMUDA.

A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
ALONG 30N94W 28N94W 27N95W 24N96W. WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE
EAST OF 93W.

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN GENERAL.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

THE TEXAS COASTAL STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...AND KVBS ARE
REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. KMZG...KBQX...AND KVBS REPORT
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. KBBF REPORTS A
VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KEHC...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS
WITH FOG REMAINS IN GALVESTON. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM
TEXAS TO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEGINNING
AND/OR ALREADY HAVE BEGUN FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 27N49W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 20N55W 16N59W...AND TO 10N65W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD...AND DISAPPEARING GRADUALLY WITH
TIME AND DISTANCE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND
TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN
CURACAO...0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.09 IN ST.
THOMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N78W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 5N84W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 80W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.  A MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 15N80W IN
THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS
HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER
PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AFTER 24 HOURS AND THE WIND FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER THAT.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR 48 HOURS. EITHER AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...OR A
RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N49W...TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N55W...TO
16N59W...AND TO 10N65W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 63W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA...IN AREAS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N10W TO 28N22W...28N35W...TO A
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N45W...TO 29N53W...
THROUGH 25N64W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N67W-TO-SOUTH
FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N30W. THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 31N30W TO 31N36W AND TO 32N40W. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N40W NORTHWESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO
27N26W BEYOND 32N43W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 52W.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N41W TO
28N37W TO 19N62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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