[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N19W TO
1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 20W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONG-WAVE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTS TWO STATIONARY FRONTS
THIS EVENING. ONE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM GALVESTON TEXAS
SE TO 23N95W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N92W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 17N91W. THE SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO PUNTA GORDA INTO
THE SE GULF ALONG 24N84W TO 24N90W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
AND ADVECTS MODERATE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS SUPPORT BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS HAZE AND
ADVECTION FOG IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N WEST OF 90W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER SW
INDIANA EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N AND PROVIDES
NORTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY FLOW OF 15-25 KT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE LEADING FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF STARTING TONIGHT BUT THEN IT
WILL MOVE BACK S AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SE GULF SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO WESTERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS
AN AXIS INTO THE FAR EASTERN BASIN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WHICH ALONG TRADE WINDS MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS THIS EVENING. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING DIURNAL PEAK OF WIND ENHANCEMENT
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOIST EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS.
MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WHICH MAY ENHANCE MORE
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONG-WAVE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ALTC NEAR 30N75W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1026
MB HIGH NEAR 29N43W AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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