[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W AND TO 3N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AS IT
ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN
21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AHEAD A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL W
OF THE AREA. ONLY SHALLOW REMAINS FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 24N90W TO 22N95W WHERE
IT CURVES S TO INLAND MEXICO TO MINATITLAN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE. THE
RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING NE 20 KT WINDS OVER
THE N CENTRAL GULF. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
BANKED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
ALSO SHOWING LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND DRIZZLE WITH POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
ARE OBSERVED TO THE N OF THE FRONT. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 85W-90W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 91W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL DRY AIR ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE EASTERN
GULF N OF THE FRONT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA WITH THE AID OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH. THE NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THERE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING BACK S AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM
COLOMBIA ALONG 16N80W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N
E OF 64W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND BARBADOS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED LOW
TOP SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THESE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SAT AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THAT
PORTION OF THE SEA...AND INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOIST EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING QUICK PASSING ISOLATED
TO THE ISLAND...AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND
COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
TODAY. BEYOND THAT...MOISTURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM
CUBA NEAR 22N80W NE ALONG 29N51W TO BEYOND 32N28W. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AT 07/0900 UTC
ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N70W SW TO 29N74W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK 1018 MB LOW AT 28N80W. THE
FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO INLAND FLORIDA JUST S OF VERO
BEACH...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR FORT MYERS AND TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NW
OF THE FRONT W OF 76W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN ATLC
NEAR 32N7W SW TO 22N20W...W TO NEAR 22N30W AND TO AN ELONGATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N52W. THE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SW TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO THE S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION
WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 9N-19N W OF 45W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH
CENTERS...ONE OF 1026 MB AT 29N42W AND THE OTHER ONE OF 1027 MB
AT 29N30W...IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC N OF
19N E OF 72W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THESE
HIGH CENTERS WSW TO 28N55W TO 28N72W. THE WEAK 1018 MB LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM S OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NW PORTION
TONIGHT AND SAT AS LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE S CAROLINA. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD SUN WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net