[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W TO 1N41W TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN
ALONG 50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 20W-28W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 42W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE U.S. CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W SW TO
25N94W TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING MINIMAL
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MAINLY INLAND.
HOWEVER...FOG AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM
EITEHR SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE
CENTRAL BASIN BY LATE WED NIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
AND THEN TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PROVIDES TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE ASCAT
DATA SHOW WINDS UP TO 30 KT. THESE TRADEWINDS ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.
BESIDES CONTINUATION OF THE TRADEWINDS...THERE IS NO OTHER
FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH ALONG LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A MODERATELY MOIST
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND STARTIN WED NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INCREASING SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N44W THROUGH
20N55W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 49W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N64W
AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N38W. STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NW PORTION WED EVENING AND STALLS THU THEN LIFTS
SLOWLY NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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