[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N16W TO THE EQUATOR 23W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN
21W-30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 34N102W OVER
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORT A WARM
FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA REGION INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF
COASTAL TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
SW OF THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING TO A STATIONARY
FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT AS THE LOW MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT N OF 26N W OF 92W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-92W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT.
AS THE FORECAST COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT PLUS WINDS GROWING IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SOMEWHAT WITH NORTHEASTERLIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
MIDWESTERN CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 83W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED E OF 74W
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 21N54W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONCENTRATED MAINLY N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-
89W. OTHERWISE...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...
EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
WESTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW
AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INFLUENCES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR
22N78W NE TO BEYOND 32N68W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MOISTURE INCREASING GRADUALLY N OF 30N THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N60W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 29N/30N WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N74W SW
TO 31N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT NEAR 31N80W
SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 78W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-
78W. OTHERWISE...FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
EXTENDS EASTWARD TO A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N38W. THIS
RIDGING IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 65W. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OVER THIS REGION IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 21N54W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 47W-58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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