[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N18W TO 0N26W TO 0N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
03S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 4W-
11W...AND FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AT 31N85W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 26N90W TO
THE SW GULF AT 23N95W TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 18N95W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 15-
25 KT N WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
SW GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS SE OF THE FRONT. PRESENTLY
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE TEXAS COAST... AND IN THE
70'S OVER THE FLORIDA COAST E OF PANAMA CITY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH PUSH TO THE SURFACE
FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST
AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY FRONT. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS NAMELY OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...
...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N47W.
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
21N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NE OF THE CENTER FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 50W-54W. A 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 15N50W TO BEYOND 20N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE W IN THE LOWER
LEVELS S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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