[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE FORCE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM THE COAST OF
ALABAMA ALONG 25N92W TO 22N95W TO THE CENTRAL-EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 1800 UTC
TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N8W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N15W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N
BETWEEN 10W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-7N
BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N88W SW TO 25N93W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM OUT OF
MEXICO TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. MOREOVER...THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 80 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING TO THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOIST AIR
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO
GENERATE FOG N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED WEST OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE NORTHERLY WIND
OF 25-35 KT DOMINATE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS
REGARDING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE SW GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N91W TO 18N93W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SE AND REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT.
A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N-NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A TONGUE
OF MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH
TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE TERRITORIES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A
WESTWARD-MOVING TONGUE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO COVER MOST OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. BESIDES THE MOISTURE...A GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE FROM THE TRADEWINDS MAY ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
31N44W AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 35N30W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 6N-26N BETWEEN 35W-53W
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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