[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 03W-15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03S BETWEEN
31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT
OF MEXICO AND OVER THE GULF W OF 92W. OVERALL MODERATE TO STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH NWP MODEL
WINDS OF 80-100 KT OVER THE FAR NW GULF...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE
BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE E GULF NEAR
26N86W. AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR WORKS EASTWARD IN THE
GULF...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED
OVER THE GULF WITH ONLY LOW CLOUDS REMAINING.LOCALLY ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER FLORIDA HAS RESULTED IN LINES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BETWEEN
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JACKSONVILLE. OTHERWISE...S-SE WINDS
GENERALLY PREVAIL W OF 85W WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW NOTED W OF 93W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL UNTIL MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND
EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY TUE AND USHER IN
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY RELATIVELY
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND
FLOW FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE...THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KT LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS BOTH
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING
THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 15N. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THROUGH TUE. THE 12Z SAN JUAN RAWINSONDE SHOWED A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION AT 840 MB REFLECTING THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SHEARING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH
WAS WEAKENING IN THE FACE OF A BROADER AREA OF WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTED A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM 31N80W
TO THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER. RELATIVELY MOIST S-SE FLOW
PREVAILS  ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR
OF 1028 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 32N32W AND 32N57W. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE E OF 60W IS A CUT-OFF MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE LOW
CAPPING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 35W IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 08N-23N BETWEEN 35W-54W WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net