[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 07N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
03N30W TO 01N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 16W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER THE W ATLC THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N82W TO 24N89W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. NE-E
FLOW COVERS THE BASIN...RANGING FROM 5-10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND FROM 15-25 KT N OF IT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-
LEVELS HINDER DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...HOWEVER SHALLOW
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND ITS VICINITY ENHANCES ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT WED MORNING PREVAILING
THROUGH THURSDAY AND DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...THUS
SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. AT THE LOWER-LEVELS...SHALLOW
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA
AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE ON THE NW
CARIBBEAN. NEAR TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SW
CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDES FOR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER HISPANIOLA
THROUGH THU MORNING. RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 34N67W TO 30N74W
TO EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N70W TO COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF ITS
AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N40W
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW FROM A 1022 MB LOW NEAR 30N20W TO 23N25W WHERE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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