[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN WERE
DECREASING BELOW GALE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W AND EXTENDS
TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO 4N40W
TO 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
24W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EXTENDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
IS PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF 91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AND FL
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W OVER THE GULF TO NEAR 23N83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF BY SATURDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TRADEWINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W.
ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N77W WHICH DOMINATES MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRADE WINDS UP TO 25 KT
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG AND N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TODAY.
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT
THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS S TO 31N62W TO 27N75W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N80W AND ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W. FARTHER EAST...A
1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 33N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SE OF THE LOW TO 31N41W AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
23N43W. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 35N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 29N. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N38W TO 30N30W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 30N45W TO 22N50W.
THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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