[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHICH WILL REACH GALE FORCE THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 10-12 FEET ACROSS THIS AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS AFRICA TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 6N18W TO 6N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
THE GULF FROM THE EPAC AND W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE TEXAS
COAST BY SAT AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA ONCE AGAIN CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE
FOR MORE INFORMATION. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND OF
THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHALLOW
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. GENTLE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE WITH FAIR WEATHER DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
GREATER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING WEAK...ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE
BASIN...EXTENDING FROM 44N64W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W THEN S
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N
OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-68W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS E OF THE FRONT
CENTERED NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 24W-
46W. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO WESTERN CUBA. EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN AND STALL
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WHILE THE FRONT ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH CONVECTION.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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