[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 05N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 05N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N30W TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 10W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF REGION
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BASED ON A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE SE CONUS SHOWS A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVER FLORIDA
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO NEAR NAPLES. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF REGION FROM SE MEXICO TO THE SE CONUS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN BY
SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE
WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHALLOW MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PASSING SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON
NIGHT...OCCASIONALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
OVERNIGHT...EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM FAR
CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 29N65W EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE ALSO NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AND EXTENDS FROM 31N30W
TO 20N40W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF
24N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
LOW PRES LOCATED N OF AREA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
THE RIDGE TO THE W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N OF 27N
BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 24N. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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