[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N89W TO 25N91W TO 20N97W.
EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM
8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE
GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST...BUT THEY
WEAKEN TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO
4N33W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL
U.S.A. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TEXAS FROM THE PANHANDLE AREA
TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT CUTS
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREA. THE FRONT CONTINUES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND BEYOND THE FAR WEST OF
TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 13N104W 21N94W BEYOND 31N84W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG AND KBBF
WITH FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES...KHHV...KVAF...
KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KVBS...KGBK...KMDJ...KIPN...KVKY...AND
KDLP. KVOA IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND
VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS.
DRIZZLE IS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
IN SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...TO GALVESTON...AND TO THE
BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA.  LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA/THE
PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN
FLORIDA ALSO IN BROOKSVILLE...AND IN PARTS OF THE TAMPA-SAINT
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BEYOND 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
61W AND 69W... FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD...AND FROM
12N NORTHWARD FROM 73W WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...1.43 IN TRINIDAD...1.30 IN BERMUDA...
0.12 IN CURACAO...0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.05 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N81W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...TO 9N85W
AND BEYOND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND
FLOW...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEYOND
32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W...FROM 18N IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 65W AND 75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS OR SO.
A SECOND RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD
TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN
THE AREA FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 24N68W...AND IT WILL END NEAR
24N74W AT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY
AND EASTERLY...TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 36 HOURS OR SO INTO THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W 27N60W 28N70W 26N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...1.30 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.05 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BEYOND 32N71W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
30W AND 80W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 16N TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN
46W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
31N40W 26N35W 23N34W AND 16N33W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N41W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N38W AND 24N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 28W AND 40W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 52W AND 68W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N59W TO 23N60W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 22N30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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