[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 6N15W 5N25W 6N29W AND 4N37W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 53W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS
TO OKLAHOMA...AND FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST/TEXAS
BIG BEND...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS 28N86W 29N90W...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST
NEAR 29N96W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N98W IN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1013 MB LOW
CENTER 28N99W...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 30N102W INTO WEST
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO 97W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF 21N97W 24N90W...26N81W IN FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DRIER AIR ALSO IS REACHING THE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH AND
KEHC AND KMDJ AND KDLP WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KVAF...KVQT...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KIKT...KVOA...
KVKY...AND KMIS. KBBF IS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES
AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD. THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ALSO COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN ARE IN
SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
HONDURAS...TOWARD COZUMEL AND CANCUN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 21N87W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 17N85W...CURVING AROUND THE COASTS OF
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO 9N83W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF 13N84W 12N80W 10N76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.26 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.08 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA
NEAR 8N81W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. THE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH
REACHES 9N83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA...FROM SANTO DOMINGO
TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTO DOMINGO...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LA ROMANA
AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS AR IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE
THAT RUNS FROM COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO HONDURAS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N BEYOND 32N FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N60W...
26N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO
27N79W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N70W AND 31N76W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N51W 27N56W 25N60W 27N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. A WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N45W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO
25N44W AND 20N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 46W FROM 26N TO 31N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND
43W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N30W 21N33W...AND TO
16N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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