[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
07N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM
WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W TO 29N94W TO
25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND N OF 26N...W OF 89W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA
EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL
MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO
16N84W TO 13N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 15
KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N80W TO 36N62W THEN INTO THE N
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 34N56W TO 46N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 51W-56W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N46W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N47W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 43N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 36W-46W. A 1036 MB
HIGH IS NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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