[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152301
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 02N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 02N20W AND CONTINUES TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND
OVER TEXAS FROM 31N84W TO 27N99W. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W TO E HISPANIOLA AT 19N68W TO W
HISPANIOLA AT 18N74W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 18N74W TO S OF
JAMAICA AT 17N79W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SHEARLINE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. IN FACT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF
THE SHEARLINE. 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
MOVE E TO THE ATLANTIC AT 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE CONTINUING TO
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N76W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO
25N53W TO 20N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N30W
PRODUCING SCATTERED NEAR THE CENTER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY
E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N...AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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